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Gotta give props to Phil. From a broad perspective he's been pretty spot on over the last several weeks and this summer appears to be shaping up as he expected.

Why do you think that? If anything I think the troughing could be more impressive mid/late month, also perhaps oriented farther east so drier N/NW flow results instead of the S/SW flow we've seen this go around. Either way, it'll be hard to avoid a cooler than average month regionwide, when all is said and done. I'd bet good money that SEA finishes July with a negative departure.

When is the last time there was a frost advisory in July? Maybe June or September, but not July or August! Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 233 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY- KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS... ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT... SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW 233 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM PDT MONDAY... * TEMPERATURE...LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS IN OREGON INCLUDE...KLAMATH FALLS...KENO...SPRAGUE RIVER...BEATTY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...VALLEY FALLS...LAKEVIEW AND SURROUNDING VALLEY LOCATIONS. * LOCATIONS IN CALIFORNIA INCLUDE...DORRIS...TULELAKE... ALTURAS...CANBY...LIKELY AND SURROUNDING VALLEY LOCATIONS. * IMPACTS...FROST MAY DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

The last month has been below normal in the PNW. No doubt about that. A far cry from the last couple summers.

Nice walk this evening. I see KLMT had 61 for a high. Coolest July day since 2000. Shockingly there were still lots of midges. I thought those were mostly around in warm/humid environments. Maybe in Klamath Falls they don't abide by any rules. Makes sense. I've also had my window wide open since 06/24. Just closed it this morning. I actually briefly found myself heating up the house for 30 minutes around 7:00am to get the indoor temp warmer. Last 2 summers I never closed my window until September. Not that lows are that much below seasonal level, but since highs took a huge swing, the house practically doesn't receive any warmth. ^^^ Frost Advisory? ^^^ Since I came here that is likely my first after about mid-June time period!

Clearly a result of the NEW cold phase!

That is quite the monster looming in the midwest.

Your prediction for a cooler first half of July might be in trouble if you guys don't put up bigger departures soon. The troughing isn't going away this month.

LWX not biting on big heat yet, but the EPS/GEFS are really pounding the drum for it during week 2.

6000 heights over the GOA and sharp troughing over the NW. Really impressive if it verifies. The upcoming trough position looks more favorable for some real anomalous cool weather here. We could easily see this be the coolest July in over 15 years.

The WRF indicates way below normal temps late this week with highs in the low 60s and lows chillier than they have been...especially on Friday. In general the entire week looks cool.

FWIW, the 00z ECMWF has cooler than average 850mb temperatures through the entire run, with no end in sight.

I clearly remember you said the Eastern half of the nation would fry this summer and the NW would be cool. You deserve credit.

Sauna.