primetime

4 separate storms on the Euro for Oregon with the last being late next week

Worst kind of road setup IMO is where temperatures have been above freezing, then they fall into the mid 20's or lower...snow falls at a good clip and partially melts on the roads, then over a short period of time, freezes hard....no one can drive on snow that has partially melted and refrozen into a hard, icy crust.

http://i66.tinypic.com/286zpyw.gif

Euro Ensemble 5 day avg for days 10-15. For a 5 day average, this is a strong signal for the big Bering Sea ridge http://i64.tinypic.com/2mg5nx2.gif

Days 9-10 on Euro looks like a money setup for lowland snow, right? Not my area

Check that Phil. The years on the analog maps are for the end of winter (Jan-Feb), not Dec....so, their years look to be mostly cool ENSO.

Virginia and north on the attitude and rude part. We OK down here

-NAM and STJ increase??

Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max? Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

They had ocean effect snow flurries in Jacksonville, FL today

Excellent post newbigmack. You do a good job of presenting your thoughts in a well thought out and organized manner. Keep up the good work. It's a shame that posts like this garner less attention than the run of the mill post on the 300 hour GFS. The questions I would have are.....was there something during the fall that would have given us a clue that the walker cell behavior was going to be more nina-like for Dec? And do we expect it to remain nina-like through the winter?

Phil - do you have any new thoughts (big picture) as we go into the heart of winter?

No problem. I'd personally like to see it dump east of the Rockies given my location, but the Euro Ensemble is wanting to focus the cold moreso in the western and central states. GFS Ensemble has it farther east...but hard to go against the Euro Ens in a model war.

12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range. Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

Appreciate it...thanks

bigmack - Is there a site where we can see these images updated, or is this a one time image? Thanks

Phil - thanks for the updates in here.

Phil - when you say tropical forcing, just wondering what this is based on...MJO, CCKW, VP Anomaly progression? What are you looking at to know the tropical progression?

Thanks Phil for the detailed reply regarding what you see going forward. Keep us posted!

Just read back through the full thread. Looks like you've done very well so far...way back in Oct you called for the north Pac troughing and central US focused Nino warmth for early-mid Dec that we are seeing on the model ensembles. Any thoughts or concerns regarding the pattern transition for late Dec?

I think it's fine to be skeptical. No forecaster hits on all calls. Not Phil, or anyone else...but with Phil's forecasts, you have to factor in the difficulty level. On a scale from 1 to 10, the difficulty level associated with his long range forecasts, and more importantly, the reasoning for the forecast, is 10+. It's not like he's forecasting the high and low temperatures for a given location tomorrow (low difficulty level). So, I would hope that folks can recognize and appreciate the difference.

Thanks for the updates Phil. Always enjoy reading your upcoming pattern thoughts. Solar Flux has been elevated of late....any concerns there?

It sounds like that is flawed, but I don't know... http://i57.tinypic.com/jhpo36.gif

http://i.imgur.com/6PXzmeQ.png

It goes with how the MJO is plotted as seen here (RMM1 on the bottom, and RMM2 on the left) http://i.imgur.com/LTogEbL.gif