But he will act like it, which will help to foment more chaos and unrest. Just like last time.

Looks like the Nina is going to take another stab at getting its act together. Nice trade wind burst has commenced. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Our recent bad luck is probably somewhat cyclical. However, our winter windstorms are generally going to be the byproduct of intense baroclinic zones, and the frequency of those may decrease a little with fewer and fewer cold airmasses from Alaska slipping out over the ocean. I don't think it's necessarily a coincidence that the last -PDO phase had a higher number of big storms before dwindling a bit after 1975.

Do you think the shift has to do with climate change? Or is a cyclic or chance thing?

Hurricane Milton. Model trends compared to 18z. Forecast for 5pm Wednesday. HWRF 8.5mb stronger, HMON 8.8mb weaker, HAFS-A 28.9mb stronger, HAFS-B 17.7mb stronger. To my untrained eye it seems unlikely to hit Tampa unless we see wobbles to the north or north-northeast at times. Based on the latest satellite trends it's going to be a bit of a tough task to bring Milton as far north as Tampa, even though several models continue to suggest this. I think it's going to be much closer to Fort Myers. We shall see... 12z ECMWF in 12 hours 3 minutes