SOI hasn't broken higher than +5 since March 2023, after having 37 consecutive positive months, 2020-2023. SOI values for 1 Nov, 2024 Average SOI for last 30 days 4.50 Average SOI for last 90 days 3.94 Daily contribution to SOI calculation 3.37 ENSO subsurface on Tao/Triton remains completely Neutral Which is interesting, because this drought map is very La Nina-ish ^We actually haven't seen much of anything that widespread since 2002, and rarely since the 1990s. It's more 1960s-ish, imo. (below is a map of anti-Strong nino's in the Winter time, showing pure La Nina's effects)

How many times has someone ran 3 times in a row? Seems like a pretty small sample size already. Kinda feels like a "hopium" article.

MJO has been active through the 2nd half of October. A few models have it staying strong through November. Some years, like 03-04, 77-78, 79-80, it just stays active through the entire Winter. That's always an interesting thing to observe, although lately it's been more a rare occurrence.

I fell asleep for four hours but I'm awake now. We had 24 trick or treaters. It started raining the moment my son and I left and started tampering off 5 minutes before we got back. Only had about .05 but it was enough to make our coats wet and the m&m's too. My parents in CA in a large city were in that sweet spot because the poor neighborhoods trick or treat there because it is safe compared the high crime elsewhere. The rich kids come there because their neighborhoods are very hilly with elevations in the 1k-2k range with lower density . As kids, my brother's friend from the hills always trick or treated in our neighborhood. They have a lot of little hills with lots of stairs but closer together. Wondering if I have more rain in the overnight hours.

Judging by the looks of the teleconnection forecast the GEFS control must have had an interesting run tonight. Maybe this will happen earlier than I thought.