Hey hey for the first time in a good while ensembles of the GFS and Euro are hinting at a ridge setting up in the Pacific NW and the EPO going negative.

Latest spaghetti models for Rafael

5.65 inches of rain fell here in the last week and another widespread soaker is on the way for the end of the week. Looks like this storm will pull some moisture from Rafael and spread some heavier rain to the Midwest.

Here's a link to The Des Moines register and how they polled. The questions they asked are in the PDF file at the bottom. Heard about this yesterday morning, but didn't find time to share it. The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.” https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Here we go! Woke up an hour early and couldn't fall back asleep. Political junkie syndrome. I'll be posting a state/county cheatsheet a bit later for those that want to follow along with live returns tonight. For now, Florida is reporting live Election Day metrics. See updates here: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ and make sure 'Election Day votes only' option is checked (default). A cheatsheet for this: Using Florida to maybe gain insights into general trends today. Not always easily comparable to other states but it's what we got to work with at this point and they post data fast (every 10 mins) Question is not who wins Florida (Republicans will) but instead, how big is the Democrat turnout today? Do we see a large D turnout that might be replicated across other states? At the link above, there is an 'Advantage Trump' number. If you want Trump to have a shot at a comfortable win nationwide, that number needs to be >20%. If it's around 15%, Trump could win but it will be iffy. If it's < 10%, Trump is in trouble The cheatsheet I will post later will be from the perspective of what is needed for Trump to win. I'm still doing some data comparisons to make sure the source I got the information from is accurate. No more polls, no more what ifs. Finally time to get this thing underway!