Some November 27th weather history for Southern Lower Michigan 1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day. 1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado caused a quarter million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile path south of Durand in Shiawassee County. 1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow, on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, November 1995 is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit. 1989, an F1 tornado hit Shiawassee County at 6:45 PM. Talk about a late tornado for the year!

Yesterday’s official H/L at GR was 40/31 there was 0.02” of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 33 MPH from the W. The sun was out 61% of the time. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 65 was is 1909,1990 the coldest high of 15 was in 1930 the record low of 5 was in 1977 the warmest low of 58 was in 1990. The wettest was of 2.94” was in 1990 the most snow was 3.8” in 1952 the most on the ground was 7” in 1950.

It got humid here in Orange tonight as if it were going to rain, and all that has fallen is a bit of drizzle.

Yes, variations of the CFS have been run out that far. I doubt they are outputting high resolution 2m temps. I’m trying to find the paper I read last year on researchgate but I might be getting SMYLE mixed up here. im any case, the variability and outrageousness of the CFS is kind of expected when the model is designed to go fast and easy with limited inputs. It provide a workable model for months and months out. There were a couple AI models I got to see in action at a previous job that are designed to compete with the CFS and go out to at least a year and have a generally ok output at lower levels. I’m hoping we see those released by this time next year.

Looks like a cool damp day around here with some showers possible. Rain amounts look light with only a tenth or two likely. Models continue to show a clipper on Saturday bringing the first flakes and possibly some accumulating snow to the area.