Yet another post...lol!! I just looked at the AI run. I would say it's trying to latch onto something but again it doesn't know how much cold air is coming YET but it is showing something similar to the GFS
Sorry, I needed to get some sleep so I missed all the later fun. I have read some of the posts and I'm guessing everyone thinks because the operational Euro run didn't really show what the GFS model did that we won't be having cold weather. I need to remind everyone that sometimes one model will latch onto something that the other model hasn't YET. I believe that's what the GFS is doing right now and the Euro will latch onto it too. I've seen this so many times. Either the GFS will first or the Euro will but eventually both will show it. I've also seen both take it away only to bring it back a couple days later. Cold air is very finicky.
If you look at the charts, the operational Euro and GFS show a little positive trend but the EPS and GEFS are showing a negative trend. I believe the operational runs are having a difficult time trying to plot where the cold air will go and how much we will get.
I still believe there will be a pattern change to cooler weather. At this time, I don't know how much cold air we will get but we will as we get closer to the event
Found it interesting that NWS Hastings based its forecast on the Euro. Not saying they are wrong, but it seems they pick and choose based on event. I’ve seen other storms where they primarily use the GFS. If GFS is correct, they will probably be very surprised imo.