Day 2 (4-run trend)

Prayers up

Night Shift 6z GFS - Day 1 (4-run trend)

Here we go!

I'll tap on Australia does have a different definition of a Nina being a 1 month average of -0.8C or lower. Their model gives it a 13.1% chance and that includes the fact that the last weekly being -0.81 (Jan 5). They were also less bullish on the Nina in general when making my October forecast and their model average was about -0.75C, which is where I think this will end up. It led me to put 3/5 October top analogs as ENSO neutral.