I used to be naive. Trying to cope with the GFS showing snow over Seattle in Jan 2024 was my biggest mistake. Never again.

Nine years ago right now things were happening and I have no recollection about how the day 13 0z GFS looked.

Wet!

you dudes are gunna hug the goofus to more heartbreak.

Given it snowed 8” on the gulf coast last winter and the overall abundance of cold, I don’t think that will be the case. It was snowing hard at 14°F here last January, temps are rarely an issue when the pattern is right. The issue has been a lackluster STJ in a confluence-dominated winter regime for many years now, basically flat waves and incongruent phasing. The Mid-Atlantic can work with that sometimes, but NYC/New England almost always gets screwed. It can all be tied back to a few low frequency tropical forcing/RWB regimes, which have begun to finally break down since the 2024 Niño but will probably require another Niño to fully change state.