Yeah they do have a bit of a warm bias. I think it will go Strong >1.51 ONI trimonthly, with the chance that it goes Super >2.01 ONI trimonthly. I'll bet you $100? It's started really early in the year, with a Kelvin wave happening and changing the subsurface this past Dec-Jan, now it looks like a next level up Kelvin wave will happen this April. All the "before El Nino later in the year" composites have been working like I've never seen something work before, ever since November. I'd probably bet you that it goes Strong.