We were due for a stretch of snow duds down here of more than a sloppy overnight inch on grass. Depressing but it's the new normal. But even the mountains are now gettin' the shaft...demoralizing.

The EPS mean actually has a solid cluster of members that look like the deterministic AIFS. The deterministic ECMWF is on the extreme end of the EPS envelope there. Wouldn’t surprise me to see 00z trend towards a flatter or more pinched ridge that discontinuously retrogrades with more Pacific energy spilling over the top.

It's coming.

ECMWF Seasonal is out to December now. Hyper Niño Continent-Wide Blast Furnace. Pineapple Express/STJ Galore. No Arctic air to speak of, but come late-Dec that would be just cold enough for wet pasty snow here with a proper STJ/storm track.

93/59 here and it actually isn’t *that* uncomfortable. I don’t like it, but it’s less bad than I expected it to be. Dewpoints really do make all of the difference. Crispy airmasses like this one I can tolerate.