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Good write up in Skiling's blog today on the EL Nino. Here is the link for all the details. http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/95-chance-the-strong-el-nino-among-the-strongest-on-record-continues-into-next-year-but-its-impact-on-this-winters-weather-isnt-nearly-as-certain Couple of interesting notes: " Check out the extent of warmer than normal water in the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska. Not all of this is El Nino inspired. And the warm ocean waters in the eastern North Pacific and in the Gulf of Alaska (off western North America) have, arguably, had a profound affect on recent winters. Air over the warm ocean waters also warms, and this appears at least one factor in the build-up of a ridge over western North America which has contributed to the diversion of needed precipitation away from the western U.S. while contributing to the ridging (i.e. northward “buckling”) of the jet stream which has kept us cold in recent winters with huge Great Lakes ice buildup. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine some version of this happening again this winter–and that would profoundly change the current “warmer than normal” winter season forecast" "Snowfall is always the more difficult parameter to predict. But were there to be a colder winter than currently forecast, the effect would be to increase snowfall downwind from the Great Lakes. And, while it may or may not prove relevant, we looked a snow seasons which followed warm Septembers—-i.e. Septembers which finished with temps more than 4-deg above normal, as just-completed Sept 2015 did. We found six such snow seasons—and four of the six finished with above normal snow tallies. Such an outcome would be the opposite of what one might expect in a strong El Nino cold season."

I would do anything to be there and experience the frenzy! Jake pitched an amazing game, I'm looking forward to the rest of the postseason. I'm doing my best to secure postseason tickets in the nlcs should they make it there......today was the deadline to apply for those tickets.

Grabbed it from a post on AMwx, then I found it here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usNASAtmp2mSeas.html

Go Cub's Go! Wow, what a dominating pitching performance by Jake Arrieta! Looks like the weather will cooperate in both St. Louis and Chicago for the first 3 games. This city is in a Frenzy!

New CFS for early winter showing the warmth sucking itself up further northward. Almost predicting normal temperature near I-80. Then colder for DJF. Then the cold anomaly expands further. And levels off towards Spring.

Pan Handle Hooks! It's time to Manifest them....

Let's combine the two. Superbomb anyone? :-)

That's pretty cool. Wonder where he gets those from. I've never found them. Anyway, looks like they may make freezing a couple of times this winter. Lol

Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago... http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_10_07_at_11_58_03_AM.png

Agreed re: the more classic forcing/walker configuration this go around. The question is, in my opinion, is there still enough interference present to cause problems w/ the older analogs, considering that the IO subsidence is still relatively weaker now than it was in the 19th century? I suspect this may explain why the Niño/stagnant connective forcing has a wider periphery vs 1997-98 and 1982-83, and why Niño4 has warmed relatively faster over the last 20yrs versus Niño3. I've also looked at AMO/IO relationship, and I believe it to be another chicken-egg problem? My statistical conclusion is that the IO/PAC appears to lead the AMO by a year or so, at least on the resolution we're looking at. l could be wrong but I'm skeptical that the NATL tail can wag the tropical dog. Do you have any thoughts on this? That's impressive! Where do you think this Niño tops at? From my perspective, it's dumbfounding to see what ERSST4 has become. There are all sorts of inhomogeneities in that dataset which should be obvious/easy to correct for, both short and long term, in my opinion. It's not my place to make accusations like this, as I don't have the knowledge to do so, but I suspect political pressure is part of the equation.

Is the SHT11 standard? Does the other cost more? Oh, one other thing for the choice of station. A 20 dollar thermometer like I linked above is definitely less accurate than the Davis, but obviously at 1/20 the cost that is fine if you aren't super picky about precision.

If you're ordering from Davis, be sure to ask for the SHT15 temp/humidity sensor as opposed to the SHT11 sensor. It's more accurate, particularly under more extreme conditions.

I think that you can't do your job right if you don't know what is going on underneath it all.