Report

Interestingly, most of the 3+ year niñas followed strong/super niños. This one is backwards in that respect. The only match to this progression is 1954/55 -1956/57. Super niño followed 1957/58, but uniquely, did not recoil back into La Niña afterwards. In fact, the next 13 years only saw 1 weak La Niña, with 6 El Niños in the same span.

Back in 2016 or 2017 I remember pounding the drum for a heavy La Niña cycle in the early 2020s. The intradecadal IPWP oscillations tied to the solar cycle & QBO made it relatively easy to time. Same forcings that brought it about are flipping now. Approaching solar maximum, IPWP is set to extend eastward after this El Niño for another 5-10 years.

Bleh

Only positive aspect of the 3 year La Niña is it might’ve staved off future La Niña cycles for the next 5-10 years. Previous 3+ year Niña (or just -ENSO) cycles tended to preclude future La Niñas for at least 5 years, sometimes close to a decade. 54/55 - 56/57: No La Niña for 8 years (64/65). The 13 year stretch between 1957/58 - 1969/70 featured 6 El Niños and 1 La Niña. 73/74 - 75/76: No La Niña for 8 years (83/84). 4 El Niños that stretch. 83/84 - 85/86: The following 9 years featured 5 El Niños and just 1 La Niña (88/89). Next niña would not occur until 1995/96, so that’s another 7 year wait. 98/99-00/01: No La Niña for 5 years (05/06) and it barely met threshold. 20/21-22/23: TBD

I’m so done with La Niña. 3 straight years (and 5/7yrs) of La Niña is enough. Good riddance. It’s El Niño time.