Warm Novembers during a La Niña are definitely good for cold Decembers. 2008 and 2016 are good examples.

A warm November heading into a Niña. The stars are aligning for next winter.

That last part is a large reason why I stuck with him as long as I did. At first in 2015/2016 I liked the outlandish crap he said. It was different and refreshing in a way. And you're right, he did do good things policy-wise while in office, things that I usually agreed with. By most objective measures I was better off (and the world was certainly safer) under Trump. But there came a certain point where the craziness and chaos started getting old. We as the Republican Party got into this pattern of two steps forward and three steps back, usually because Trump couldn't keep that aforementioned mouth shut. That got really frustrating very quickly. Granted, he got put through the wringer by the Dems like rarely seen before and still is... But that doesn't make the initial point any less true. Add continued insults to military members, his lack of character, his extreme narcissm, his vengefulness, etc. and the guy just grates on me now. Not to mention Republicans have done nothing but lose since we made Trump our brand after his fluke win. 2018 midterms, 2020 general, the supposed "red wave" that never materialized in 2022. At this point a good part of my frustration is the fact that our party can't seem to get it past their thick skull that Trump is toxic to most sane, moderate, level-headed, non-MAGA people. You know, the people we need to actually win elections. Voters may ultimately hold their noses and vote for him again in November but this election shouldn't even be close. Biden is an utter disaster and has one foot in the grave. Republicans should be walking away with the win this cycle. Instead, we have to play the Trump game again and gamble on whether we will win or not. A completely needless risk when you had actual non-nursing-home-aged adults in the room at one point this primary race, any of whom would have probably brought home this easy W. Nah, instead let's take the convicted felon that Dems have convinced half the country is a Nazi and really just watch things burn. Ugh.

The calm before Mega Storm 2024!

Lots of confection opportunities on the 00z. Delicious!