Widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts are looking more likely through the middle of the country with the storm Monday and Tuesday. Models are also hinting at a severe weather outbreak for Oklahoma and North Texas Monday evening.

The next 4-7 days is going to be crazy. What if the models trend to shift that trough even further southwest? We would go right into a cold pattern. What if the trough doesn't slide offshore and hugs the coast? We could see a major wind storm, especially WA/BA. Then the potential for a Cat 4-5 AR. After the trough ejects inland Alaskan ridging might take hold and we go into the deep freeze too. At any rate it does NOT look boring!

Pretty chilly offshore flow

Most stays to the east but it's nice to see this chilly weather

Spokane AFD talks about how dramatic the turnaround is: "Tuesday through Friday: There have been significant changes with the ensemble model packages regarding the forecast for next week. For the last few days, 80% of the guidance was supporting a strongh high amplitude ridge with stable weather conditions, light winds, and potential for air stagnation. The last few runs have started to migrate toward a much different direction featuring a low amplitude ridge and potential for several low pressure system to bring rounds of precipitation, some which could fall as lowland snow, especially with the first one Tuesday night into Wednesday. The only confidence for a dry day comes on Tuesday as one system is departing and another approaching the coast. How the next 3-5 days plays out carries moderate uncertainty. We have seen a drastic shift in the medium range ensemble solutions toward a wet and unsettled weather pattern! To give some perspective, let's examine the 100 member ensemble for WED (Nov 20). 24 hours ago, 80% of the members supported a high amplitude; 12 hours ago this decreased to 30%; 3 hours ago (the most recent run), this decreased to 8%."