I have found over the years that when a west-based Greenland Block forms, it is a Golden storm track for the MW/Lower Lakes region. Last night's 00z EPS is really dialing in on it...also, the 06z GEFS starting to highlight it...lookin' mighty pretty....
One thing I will say is that models almost always underestimate the speed and intensity of the low level cold. To see numbers like we are seeing at this range makes you wonder how cold it may get. Especially if we can get a good blanket of snow on the ground.