^Seems to be trending to stay strong, longer too. Nov - Feb in the last 3 years, if this warming happens, we'll be batting 9-0 with the QBO phase.

Here is tonight's CMCE 10 hPa zonal wind forecast. More members showing a SSW than yesterday, with at least a week showing near or below wind reversal conditions.

This is probably the most optimistic I've been since 18-19 (that didn't end up being a great Winter though). Another interesting thing is the Aleutian ridge is having trouble establishing and persisting, all year. Since June 2023, 21/29 months have been +PNA, and since the El Nino ended 12/19 months have been +PNA. I believe something changed in the Pacific base-state pattern during the 23-24 Strong Nino. We could see -PNA this Winter, but it's not likely to be a persistent pattern like it had been 2018-2024, unless it just kind of comes out nowhere.

00z AIFS had some good fun with a deep arctic blast and several rounds of snow at the end of the month and early December. Most other models at least have a brief but solid cold shot but not all of them are so interested in snow. I still think most likely any snow stays north and east of me for this round.

I've noticed the same general idea. You can usually get some hints about the winter from aspects of the warm season pattern. I'm feeling pretty optimistic we will get several at bats this winter with near to above normal snow for many.