Fourth Winter Weather Advisory issued for tonight through tomorrow morning. Calling for 2-4" in the advisory area. My zone forecast is calling for 3-5". A good present to come home to!

All the models point to having a negative PNA. The control runs for both Euro's don't look the greatest but the assemblies look good.

The big weather news at this time is that there is a big warm up the should come before Christmas. Will we lose all of our snowpack? We shall see. Some weather history for December 12th 1989 — A winter storm produced snow from northern Mississippi to the Middle Atlantic Coast, with 10.5 inches reported at Powhatan VA. Heavy snow whitened the Black Hills of South Dakota, with 36 inches reported at Deer Mountain. Thirteen cities in the north central U.S., from Minnesota to Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN and Yankton SD with morning lows of 22 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) and in 2008 — A significant ice storm wreaked havoc across New York and New England on December 12, disrupting electricity and leaving over 1 million homes and businesses without power. New Hampshire alone had as many as 320,000 residents without power, which according to reports it was described as the worst outages in 30 years (Reuters). Four fatalities were reported and parts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and Maine declared a state of emergency (BBC News). The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 27/24 there were 39 HDD’s there was a trace of snowfall there was 6” of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 37/26 the record high of 60 was in 1991 and 1949 the coldest high of 18 was set in 5 years the last time was in 2024. The record low of -5 was in 1958 the warmest low of 42 was in 2006. The wettest was 1.56” in 2020 the most snowfall of 6.0” was in 1972 the most on the ground was 12” in 2000 and 1990. As stated before a big warm up is on its way and temperatures should be in the 40’s by next Thursday. Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids Today A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly between 10pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as zero. West wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 13. Wind chill values as low as -3. West northwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Saturday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -6. West northwest wind around 7 mph. Sunday A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. West northwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Wednesday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Thursday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

Christmas snowstorm for some on the 06z AIFS. 00z ECMWF and GFS also had systems around that time. The upcoming -PNA pattern flip might just be forming at the right time to start cranking better, non-clipper systems across the CONUS right around the best time of year to have them.

I thought the 06z GFS was pretty good. Some ensemble improvements too.