Every night at 9pm, I name each one of my chairs someone on the forum. RentonHill is usually chair #4

The '84 analog is strong. WeatherBELL Prm Joe Bastardi Blog 1984 is Ruling the Roost Joe Bastardi Dec 13 2025 1984 is Ruling the Roost You cant make this up Dec 28,1984 500 mb ? Euro 00z Dec 28 2025 ? Weeklies yesterday ? So the features are backing west Here is the likely problem with yesterdays weeklies. The Euro is not seeing the block backing. Jan 1-8 ? It is highly likely that its not strong enough with the positives over Greenland The QBO was easterly in that winter What was the state of the QBO in the winter of 1984-1985? The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the winter of 1984–1985 (December 1984 to February 1985) was in its easterly phase.Evidence from historical data: At the standard reference level of 50 hPa (commonly used for winter QBO classification), monthly zonal wind values were: December 1984: -9.98 m/s January 1985: -8.00 m/s February 1985: -6.54 m/s Negative values indicate easterly winds (EQBO phase). At 30 hPa, values were also easterly: December 1984: -8.17 m/s January 1985: -0.38 m/s (near transition but still weakly easterly overall context) The broader period showed a strong descending easterly regime through late 1984 into early 1985. As of December 13, 2025, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is in its easterly phase.Key details: The easterly (negative) QBO phase is currently active and descending through the stratosphere. Long-range forecasts and analyses indicate strong easterly wind anomalies at key levels (e.g., around 50 hPa and higher) during December 2025. This easterly phase is expected to influence the upcoming winter (2025/2026), potentially weakening the stratospheric polar vortex and increasing the risk of disruptions like sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), similar to patterns seen in past EQBO winters. This aligns with the ongoing downward propagation of the easterly regime, as observed in recent radiosonde data and reanalysis updates. The phase is particularly relevant for Northern Hemisphere winter circulation, favoring conditions for high-latitude blocking (e.g., over Greenland) more than in westerly QBO years. Look at the AI on this run ? The trough over the NE is backing up even more. Its doing so in a discontinuous retrogression fashion as pieces come out out of the western trough, which, btw is in a place that is not that bad as its narrow, and each one will pull the trough back west as the positive between Iceland and Europe should back west toward Greenland Here is what happened in 1984-1985 last week of December ? Evolution week by week Jan ? ? ? Canary in the "cold" mine. Europe Big 50 mb disruption now big one then So what can we take from this Given we have an example of what we are seeing, it is more likely with the easterly QBO that we go toward the 84-85 analog, than the warmth portrayed on the Euro weeklies. But are they really warm. THEY CERTAINLY LOOK WARM. But looking underneath, with 101 members, there are simply more seeing what I dont think is going to happen than do. what happens if they move toward the analog. You can take the 30 day ? and understand that right now the model has members that agree with the positives developing over Greenland, but many more disagree, But the analog says the opposite So does the negative WPO look and the Euro trough. So I will look for the correction with much more positive over the top, destroying the positive over the east and on the table is the idea that the negative winds up over the east. It happened last year if you recall This is what happened in January ? but on Dec 5 ? This year monthly ? So what is the conclusion? With Cold dominating in Canada, it ups the ante If January turns brutal, like the current cold that we saw, it should not be a surprise If it stays warm, the winter-over scenario that has happened before after these shots is possible, I don't think it's likely But there are members (1989-1990,2005-2006 where it did end. So it adds to the problem in the forecast I just think if we have almost the exact conditions we had in 1984-1985 we should consider that as much as what models are saying. I lead to the analogs

You like to pretend we're all sitting down don't you?

Really deep, negative PNA incoming. It will probably be below -1 monthly for December. The good news is, -PNA +1-month has a high correlation to cold weather in the NW for January (0.3-4 correlation) (map default is positive, so it's opposite for neg PNA)

Roller coaster pattern shaping up. Looks like more near normal to above than cold and snowy up until Christmas.