00z GEFS - Vancouver, BC. Not bad. Two different periods of time where we see a large cluster of -5c to -10c. The first on Christmas Eve, and the second begins New Years Eve. P a t i e n c e.
Operational runs tend to be the leading edge for sniffing something out. Only little bit worrying would be that we are going into a weekend and unless there is a serious storm in Europe, humans are not making adjustments in Reading. Not surprised about the AIFS not latching on as whatever feature that brought us this frozen gift was probably bound in computed thermal dynamics and not gradient diffusion and fairy dust.
@SpaceRace22 did you find any skill data for Eagle yet? Someone brought up the number of US military planes in these past few weeks has been significantly higher than usual. NOAA models can take obs from some of those planes and use it in the initialization pool, and seeing how we are not sharing all the data with the Europeans anymore, the Eagle should have a different curve than the Era dominated AIFS.
Anyway, probably a fluke but it always starts with one run.