The CPC 3-4 Week forecast and May outlook are in line with analogs.
1) A Stronger El Nino is likely to develop later this year
2) March +NAO was the 2nd most positive NAO in all of records, 75 years x 12 months, 900 analogs.
+NAO March rolled forward to May looks like this:
^Kind of surprising the majority of CONUS is cold
Later-in-the-year El Nino looks like this in May:
^Only real strong correlation on current records is in the PNW
CPC 3-4 Week outlook:
CPC May Outlook: