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Just saw lightning to my SW here.

The cut-off some hi-res models are showing is likely not going to happen. It's best to use them to see where the best banding will take place which currently looks like city on south. I'm going with 4 inches IMBY, 6 inches at ORD and 8 inches in the city. I bet we will see some isolated 10 inch totals somewhere in the CWA.

12z Euro had about the same track but much weaker...a general 3-6" snowfall. You just never know with these Clippers that round the base of the trough. If you can get them to slow and dig they can produce significant snowfall. BTW, GFS and GGEM/EURO are worlds apart for temps next week. 00z GGEM keeps it very cold for March standards through next week similar to what the 12z Euro showed today.

00z GGEM goes nuclear on snow totals...probably as over done as last night's 00z NAM model...ha!

Here is the 01z..

- Nice day here too. Even warmer of course. Got up into the upper 60s. A short break from the darker and wetter side of late winter / earlier spring in the PNW. ? .. And certainly here further south potentially. .. Or the beginning of a long line of days with steadily increasing, warmer temperatures. ? Sorry fellas. With the level of drought potential still hanging over us here more south—and even with its having been made lesser over the past 2 or 3 weeks, ... Gotta hope for a "Later" Spring, with only some breaks more sun-shiney and nice: both here, and there. ... myself.

Pretty decent amount of lightning strike in NW and central Missouri where the storms are right now.

They're likely not being serious. Don't storm cancel because the HRRR that comes hourly shifted the heavier banding south. Once again these hi-res models seem to lack showing overrunning precip. Looking at the low it's actually a bit north than 18Z guidance currently so no reason to worry.

Lol^ very fitting MW Built it! Today marks the end of snow cover. A lot more snow melted off today. It ran 93 days or 13.2 weeks! Some pictures within 5 miles of here. One of the barest fields I passed by. Little more typical view of most agricultural lands. __ View of the west side of my yard that has the biggest bare area. Snowiest corner of my yard is actually in the open. Go figure...

You mean November 2015

I have to say this latitude does not get Arctic air blasts and major snowstorms the first week of April (if it would it would be like a once in 50 year event). Sun angle and warmer ground goes against big totals. Biggest snowfall I've seeen or heard of in the area is about 6" within the first 5 days of the month and it was gone within 36 hours. Sure early next week looks chilly, but expect that to be it for highs in the any lower than the upper 20s.

Pretty much went due north from when it slipped into OK.

With El Nino coming, as long as it's not too strong, we could have a pretty decent winter next year. Our best winter in years happened during a weak El nino back in 09-10. The major reason for that was b/c of the negative NAO/AO so will see. This just wasn't our year; remember last year Chicago had a horrible winter like ours. Things change, will get our winter sometime.....

Tom hyping up the cold and snow as usual.

screw it. im gonna say precip heads a little north and over performs. my area gets 7-10".

As solar activity gradually fades off, expect periods of somewhat enhanced activity going ahead until it finally goes to bed. This is pretty normal to get a little ebb and flow as you go along. Nothing to worry about as has been said.