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You're gonna drive yourself insane. This nina cycle is just starting. Pace yourself.

The ECMWF and GFS agree on that crazy 6000 ridge over the Midwest next week. It will suck to be them if it verifies. The ECMWF looks undenaibly cool for us at least through the 20th.

Rather majestic pattern progged for next week with extreme high heights over the GOA and the Midwest. It will be interesting to see how cool the trough in between (over us) ends up being. No question the monthly surface pressure anoms over the NE are going to be at historically high levels. A continuation of these anomaly centers going into fall and winter would be quite fun for the NW.

Right there with you. Even though Tim will think it's just to spite him, a colder and unsettled summer would be perfect with me

Waning. Softening. Fading. On its way out. Opposite of waxing.

Holy sh*t, average high temps for mid July could be potentially incoming!!? Going to go stock up on supplies right this minute. brb.

As surely as you will overreact to everything, flatiron will overreact to KSEA.

Actually is cooler at the surface vs 00z, due to that big offshore high being stronger/closer to the coast. Dewpoints in the mid 40s, even some low 40s at hour 204.

12z Euro looks solidly cool and troughy. Only frame that really shows a potential SW flow pattern is hour 216, so I'm sure we'll be seeing it soon. It isn't representative of the whole run, though.

Love seeing the warm pool develop as the PDO slowly begins its demise

12z gfs is truly extraordinary with the persistence of the troughing over the west. The relentless surges of waves into the low prevent the midwest ridge from expanding back west for the remainder of the month.

It's kind of odd that many of the years that had the highest offshore pressure had little in common with each other. This one has a chance of being in a class all its own though. I have an index I created to monitor the NE Pacific surface pressure anomalies. A very useful index indeed.

Yeah but "enjoyable to the masses" and July go hand in hand around here generally. Cool Julys are not by any definition unpleasant or ugly for the most part. At worst we're still going to generally see

Love it

I can actually mow my weeds without stirring up a choking cloud of dust with my mower this summer.

GIPHY

One thing that's helped me become a better forecaster is to always be keen of my personal biases. If I find myself forecasting a solution that I'd personally find "desirable", I always quadruple-check it, look for flaws, and generally take a more skeptical approach to that forecast in general. Likewise, I personally believe you'd be a much better forecaster if you stopped forecasting what you want to happen, and start forecasting with an intentional bias towards what you don't want to happen. The power of the subconscious mind is amazing, in that you might think you're being as objective as possible, when in reality you're being the exact opposite. I've observed this negative quality in myself quite frequently. Just my two cents.

That's crazy humid! Hit 90° here today, but the dew point was a more modest 67-70°.