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Winter Forecasts - 2022-23 (Amateur and Pro Welcome)


chescowxman

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Below is my attempt at a Winter Forecast for Chester County PA. I identified 12 analog years that had similar average temperature departures for October (~2 degrees below normal) and November (~2 degrees above normal). Ten (10) of the twelve (12) featured below normal temperatures - with 8 of the 12 years having above normal snowfall. The coldest analog season was 1977-78, the snowiest was the winter of 2009-10 when we were buried under 86.7" of snow. The warmest was 1948-49, the least snowiest 1930-31.
Overall, I predict below normal temperatures for December, January and February, but above normal March temperatures. Seasonal snowfall will be above average at 47" vs our 36" of average snowfall featuring above average snowfall for all winter months with the exception of March
Below is the chart with the actual readings for the analog years. Let me know your thoughts and if any questions let me know. Wish me luck and get those snowblowers ready!!
image.png.20b33aa663ad03e1400de4178366ca19.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Most enthusiasts of winter weather like to see solidly below normal weather from December right through at least February. So I went back and checked on records for 134 winter seasons here in Chester County PA going back to the winter of 1888-89 to see how often it happens and whether it is happening more or less frequently than the winters of old. Well here in Chester County only 30 times or 22.4% of seasons do we see a below normal December - January - February. Across the last 13 decades we have been very consistent with no significant changes in number of such winters by decade.

1890's (2) / 1900's (3) / 1910's (2) / 1920's (3) / 1930's (2) / 1940's (2) / 1950's (2) / 1960's (3) / 1970's (3) / 1980's (2) / 1990's (2) / 2000's (2) / 2010's (2)

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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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