My Winter Outlook 2023-2024

[Black Hole]

I haven't actually made a winter outlook for a few years, but I thought this year might be worth it.I want to be clear up front that I've heavily borrowed from the ideas and images of others, but I've tried to credit the posters name when I know who made it. In that sense I am directly saying that not everything here is my own original thoughts, but I've included what I think makes sense to me and intermixed it with my own commentary. 

 

Overall, there are mixed signals and I could see this winter being both great or a dud, but I think there is more evidence to suggest it will be an overall interesting winter for most of us. But even if not, the likely SSW should at least give us a window. For the northern Plains I think December might be your best shot while for the southern plains and the east Jan-Feb is probably the best bet. Anyway, hope you enjoy. 

 Winter Outlook.pdf

 

[Black Hole]

If I am wrong, the most likely way that I think I would be is that the Aleutian low is too far east and ridging settles over the northern Plains and southern Canada. This would result in a wetter winter in the PNW, and a warmer wetter winter for the southern Plains. That's more 1997-1998 like if it occurs. 

Another potential problem is if SE ridging flexes up and the Greenland block ends up so far southwest it just makes an east coast ridge. That would keep any cold air further west. It's not likely but some factors suggest its possible.