NOAA had the warmest JJA anomalies over the intermountain west and east coast, with equal chances over the northern plains. But I suspect it will be TX/NM/LA that ends up closest to average unless the MJO/intraseasonal forcing fails to coherently emerge from the E-Hem in mid-August.
It’s possible the areal coverage of negative departures is greater than in June. That wouldn’t surprise me.
However, the area with *significant* positive departures is also likely to be larger. I’d be surprised if the lower-48 doesn’t finish hotter overall w/rt climatology.
I think we’re looking at a prolific +CGT/heat dome pattern over the CONUS starting 7/15-20. Probably more substantial than the one in June, as this one aligns with peak in the seasonal amplitude of the CGT response to MJO/BSISO (boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: see below).
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/99/4/99_2021-045/_pdf/-char/en