Prepping for the incoming Wintery Halloween!

Boooooo

The track will be determined a lot by the strength of -NAO. We had a -NAO burst in late September that was record breaking, and models seem to make a 2nd round of that during the time of the storm. Sometimes these post-super-index states will not verify as strong. We also have solar activity occurring now that has been correlating with +NAO this year. So while models don't change much in a 4-5 day period, there is a slight err potentially on the side of a less strong -NAO, which could favor a very slightly more north track. But the strength of the -NAO, and EC trough is not going to make the strength of the storm a big determining factor, It's a pretty solid pattern occurring.

That may be unprecedented. Usually, politicians crave the attention.

Definitely true, but given how quite a large area south of TB is still a distinct possibility with this, a northern trend makes me nervous because it puts Tampa in the area of onshore winds. A tiny wobble to the south and Tampa is back to doomsday status. It's gotta be very strange for anyone who lives in Tampa and follows the models closely. They've had like 47 brushes with doomsday over the last few years that always seem to veer off at the last second. Some day their luck is gonna run out I'm afraid.