In the short term the ECMWF shows below normal temps 4 of the 6 next days on the 6z run.

Too bad the 6z GFS operational and 6z GEFS were so awful for week two. The GEFS has been the lame outlier on the ensembles though.

Pretty typical to get these on the edge marginal situations as we work toward the good stuff in this context. Certainly happened in years like 1988 and 1990 as well as many other more recent ones.

Not a fan of the 12z ICON solution. Hoping we can steer away from the nothing but cold rain that it shows for here. Although I guess on the bright side, we have seen very little rain since August and our soil moistures are still very low. Perhaps it'd be good to get a nice soaking rain before the ground freezes up and we lock it under snow. So I guess in that case we will take what we can get.

-QBO is best with a Nino though.