Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for November 22. 1866: Seven inches of snow piles up in Lansing as temperatures plunge to the single digits. 1963: President John Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas, Texas. The weather in Lower Michigan is unusually warm with morning lows around 50 degrees and afternoon highs in the 60s. The month ends up being one of the warmest November on record. 1880, there was an exceptionally early cold wave in Detroit which commenced on the 18th and lasted 6 days all with record lows with the bottom hitting zero on the 22nd. This resulted from an arctic high pressure measuring near 31.00″ over Ohio. 1909, 2.59″ of precipitation fell in Detroit. This is the record maximum precipitation for one day for the month of November in Detroit.

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 37/33. GR had its 1st snowfall of the season with 0.2” of snow fall. The total precipitation was 0.16” For today the average H/L is 44/31 the record high of 66 was in 1913 the coldest high of 20 was in 1929 the record low of 13 was in 1929 the warmest low of 55 was in 2010. The wettest was 1.38” in 2010. The most snowfall of 7.0” fell in 1898 6.8” fell in 1945. The most on the ground was 11” in 2000. The overnight low here in MBY was 32. I did not have any rain/snow since 8AM yesterday. At the current time it is 37 and cloudy.

That weak ridge just getting bullied by the pacific.

Devastating trendz, but close call on the 6z GFS

Yes Aleutian low/+WPO enhances wave driving in such a way to trigger a wavenumber-1 response from the PV. One piece of the puzzle, but an important one nonetheless. Should that pattern occur, it will force the PV into Eurasia where it is more vulnerable to wave attacks that’d trigger a wave-2 response (split). That’s a long way off, though. At least 6 weeks, probably longer.