This is probably the most optimistic I've been since 18-19 (that didn't end up being a great Winter though). Another interesting thing is the Aleutian ridge is having trouble establishing and persisting, all this year. Since June 2023, 21/29 months have been +PNA, and since the El Nino ended 12/19 months have been +PNA. I believe something changed in the Pacific base-state pattern during the 23-24 Strong Nino. We could see -PNA this Winter, but it's not likely to be a persistent pattern like it has been 2018-2024, unless that just kind of comes out nowhere.

00z AIFS had some good fun with a deep arctic blast and several rounds of snow at the end of the month and early December. Most other models at least have a brief but solid cold shot but not all of them are so interested in snow. I still think most likely any snow stays north and east of me for this round.

I've noticed the same general idea. You can usually get some hints about the winter from aspects of the warm season pattern. I'm feeling pretty optimistic we will get several at bats this winter with near to above normal snow for many.

We had a big -SLP 60-90N this Summer. For whatever reason, since 2012 it has had an almost perfect correlation with follow Winter -AO. late August also broke the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month in the N. Hemisphere. When you see that stuff in the warm season, it is usually indicating more -ao/-epo potential for the cold season.

Actually the 50 hPa ECMWF has a full split with 3 daughter vortices. It's ideal to have one of these overhead as often troughs tend to want to focus beneath these. The way I read this is a tendency for cold into the US as we get deeper into December.