The MJO continues to linger completely dead in the null phase, while slowly creeping towards Indian Ocean phase 1, contrary to model guidance that wanted to take it back out to phase 7 and 8. The operational models will inevitably flip flop, and I think the GFS will turn back around even better for the 12z. I just don't see the STJ being the main concern, especially with a persistent -EAMT/-AAM that has already developed. Unless.. do you see something else I'm missing that is feeding into the jet here? I'm not an expert

Radar suggests is should have been snowing for the last hour, but the air is too dry. The HRRR continues to dry us out more with each run. I'm down to <1" now. I feel like I've wasted my whole week watching these garbage clippers.

I like the 06Z GFS

Here in my yard I received 2” of new snowfall overnight and now have 7” on the ground. Some weather history for December 13th 1962 — A severe Florida freeze occurred. Morning lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of December. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) and in 1989 — Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique. Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 28/24 there was 0.06” of precipitation the fell as 0.9” of snow. There was 6” of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 37/25 the record high of 61 was in2015 the coldest high of 15 was in 1943 the record low of -6 was in 1958 the warmest low of 48 was in 1920. The wettest was 0.81” in 1975 the most snowfall of 6.8” was in 1973 the most on the ground was 15” in 1970. After a cold weekend it still looks like a good warm up coming next week. Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids Today A slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 12 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -3. West northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight A chance of snow showers between 7pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -4. West northwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A slight chance of snow showers between 7am and 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -3. West northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Light west wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Monday A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. South southwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Wednesday Night Showers likely after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Thursday Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 30.

Just got done putting the kids to bed. What’d I miss