I agree, it looks like essentially a transition to climo by Christmas. Precip is near-normal for the last week of the EPS, temps slightly below normal.
.2 yday from a shortwave pre clipper brought KDSM to 14.3" for the season which was the total for ALL of last season.
Not doing to shabby with this one with 2.5" or so through 7:35Am. Maybe another inch / inch and 1/2. Snow is running 15 to 20:1 SLR. Very easy to measure as the wind is light and snow crystals are stacking perfectly.
I have no idea. This MJO stuff I only just learned more about in the last couple months. I learn something new here all the time, especially from the longtimers
The MJO continues to linger completely dead in the null phase, while slowly creeping towards Indian Ocean phase 1, contrary to model guidance that wanted to take it back out to phase 7 and 8.
The operational models will inevitably flip flop, and I think the GFS will turn back around even better for the 12z. I just don't see the STJ being the main concern, especially with a persistent -EAMT/-AAM that has already developed.
Unless.. do you see something else I'm missing that is feeding into the jet here? I'm not an expert
Radar suggests is should have been snowing for the last hour, but the air is too dry. The HRRR continues to dry us out more with each run. I'm down to <1" now. I feel like I've wasted my whole week watching these garbage clippers.