I’ll just leave this here. The level of uncertainty is about as great as tracking a snowstorm. Better be safe than sorry.

12km is weaker, but the 3km is still a worst case scenario. Yeah down south there weaker, but still high

NAM still going strong! Amazing spread in the models

NAM still looks windy, maybe a little weaker than the crazy 00z

These bomb cyclones with the rapid intensification and varying tracks are notorious for giving models a fit, as such, models are going to struggle with it. Best and safest bet is to be well prepare for it. I think to say it’s no longer a threat is irresponsible.