Models are missing so much data with all the cuts. Everyone got this wrong. We won’t know for awhile though on how much it’s really effecting model data. I said earlier this winter you can’t trust the models. Even a few days out anymore. I expect many more surprises or disappointments in the coming months. Sad.

KEY MESSAGES SNOW TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND BITTER COLD AIR SLATED TO ARRIVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY The next several days look like they could be rather snowy here in west Michigan. Here in my yard there was not much snowfall yesterday and overnight and there is just a trace of snow here on the ground but even with a bare ground it did manage to get cold as the current temperature here is now 14° Detailed Forecast Today A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 25. North wind around 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Tonight A 50 percent chance of snow showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Friday Snow showers. High near 34. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches. Friday Night Snow showers. Low around 23. West southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday Snow showers. High near 26. West southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Saturday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Sunday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. M.L.King Day Snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 15. Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Tuesday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/18 that 40 was reached at 4AM. There was 0.07” of precipitation and officially 1.2” of snowfall. (here in my area there was just trace amounts of snowfall) officially there was 1” of snow on the ground. The highest wind gust was 40 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 57 was in 1949 the coldest high of -3 was in 1972 the record low of -15 was also in 1972 the warmest low of 41 was way back in 1941 the next warmest low is 34 in 1954. The wettest is 0.54” that also had 3.1” of snow in 1960 the most snowfall of 5.8” was in 1997 the most snow on the ground was 21” in 1979. Some weather history for January 15th 1932 Up to two inches of snow whitened the Los Angeles basin of California. The Los Angeles Civic Center reported an inch of snow, and even the beaches of Santa Monica were whitened with snow, in what proved to be a record snowstorm for Los Angeles. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) and in 1952 A six day snowstorm was in progress in the western U.S. The storm produced 44 inches of snow at Marlette Lake NV, 52 inches at Sun Valley ID, and 149 inches at Tahoe CA, establishing single storm records for each of those three states. In addition, 24 hour snowfall totals of 22 inches at the University of Nevada, and 26 inches at Arco ID, established records for those two states. The streamliner, 'City of San Francisco' was snowbound in the Sierra Nevada Range, near Donner Summit. (David Ludlum)

0z Euro maintains the idea of a storm in the middle of the country around the 24th and 25th. The GFS is on and off with it but has good ensemble support.

06z GEFS is leaning toward a failed ridge attempt followed by west based +EPO, similar to the GEPS. Would be disappointing. Hopefully it's a wobble

Yikes on the AIGFS/GFS. All-timer in all the wrong ways.