The 12z HRRR will be an important run.

The snowfall here yesterday was 4.1” as there were several rounds of heavy to moderate snowfall. Here in my yard, I now have after the snow settles 14” of snow on the ground. The low this morning so far is the current temperature of -5. No matter how cold the daytime high is for today there will not be a new record as it was still +10 at 1 AM. KEY MESSAGES LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COLD-RELATED HEADLINES ARE PLANNED. THE EC ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH A FORECAST MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND MINUS 20 DEGREES F FOR GRAND RAPIDS SATURDAY MORNING. OUR "OFFICIAL" DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS ARE RUNNING A SMIDGE WARMER THAN THAT (FOR EXAMPLE MINUS 12 IS ADVERTISED AT GRAND RAPIDS FOR A LOW SATURDAY MORNING). THIS IS BECAUSE THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS REALLY AN AMALGAMATION OF DIFFERENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SOURCES, INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE, CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, AND OTHERS THAT ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE EC ENSEMBLE. THE HREF, WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY WEIGHTED IN THE FORECAST AS WE APPROACH SATURDAY MORNING, GIVES A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MINUS 20F, SO THE EC ENSEMBLE HAS SOME COMPANY WITH ITS FORECAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NPWGRR PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS DANGEROUS COLD. Detailed Forecast Today A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 2. Wind chill values as low as -21. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around -12. Light and variable wind. Saturday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values as low as -16. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -8. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Sunday Snow showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Monday A 50 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Monday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 16. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Looking back at yesterday the reported weather conditions at Grand Rapids HEAVY SNOW SNOW LIGHT SNOW FOG BLOWING SNOW The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 25/12 there was 3.7” of snowfall the official snow depth at 7 AM yesterday was 10” the highest wind gust was 38 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 56 was in 1909 the coldest high of 6 was in 1963 the record low of -19 was in 1948 the warmest low of 53 was in 1909 the wettest was 0.80” in 2012 the most snowfall of 8.0” was in 1894 the most on the ground was 20” in 1963. Some weather history for January 23rd 1987 Strong winds ushered bitterly cold air into the north central U.S., and produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northwest Lower Michigan ranged up to 17 inches in Leelanau County. Wind chill temperatures reached 70 degrees below zero at Sault Ste Marie MI and Hibbing MN. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Nice to see the HRRR pretty robust with round one. If the dry air is going to eat into it big time. Would probaubly tend to see it here.

Yup. I think your pretty good over there. Its the kind of storm where It seems like its so cold. It might be a nice prolonged period of light occasional moderate snow. Hopefully the heavier banding grabs central MO as the main wave developes.

Hate to see that the models trended south and drier on the 06z suite. Maybe we can get a nudge back north today?