Flurries here better snow bands are to my north.

Cold overperforming a bit this AM, advected down to 6°F with a subzero wet bulb. Fully mixed boundary layer.

I will start off with did Grand Rapids tie or set a new record low for any January 24th? We will have to wait and see what GRR comes up with later this morning. The hourly temperatures are in and it did indeed reach -18 at Grand Rapids that is the coldest temperature recorded at Grand Rapids since a low of -22 in 1994. I am sure that there are locations in the area that got down to -20 and colder. Here at my house I had a warmer low of -15.8° (-16) and at the current time it is all the way up to -14.8°. At Cadillac the low looks to be at -31° Here in west Michigan we will miss the big storm to the southeast. KEY MESSAGES DANGEROUS COLD SATURDAY MORNING THEN A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY SNOW IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN COLD WEEK AHEAD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW Detailed Forecast Today Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8. Wind chill values as low as -14. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Wind chill values as low as -6. Light east southeast wind. Sunday A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -6. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Sunday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -6. North wind around 6 mph. Monday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. West wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Monday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Wednesday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. Thursday Night A chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. Friday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 20. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 12/-15 (that 12 was at midnight most of the daytime temperatures were around 0) there was 0.6” of snowfall and there was a reported 10” on the ground. The highest wind gust was 33 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 30/18 the record high of 62 was in 1967 the coldest high of 6 was in 1904 the record low of -19 was in 1948. The warmest low of 37 was in 2017. The wettest was 0.88” in 1978 the most snowfall of 6.5” was in 1930 the most on the ground was 19” in 1979 and 1963. Some weather history for January 24th 1963 A great arctic outbreak reached the southern U.S. The cold wave broke many records for duration of cold weather along the Gulf Coast. A reading of 15 degrees below zero at Nashville TN was an all-time record low for that location. (David Ludlum)

Beautiful steady snow falling in KC, currently 0 degrees with about 1 inch of powder. We’ll see how this goes today. Who will under perform and who will over achieve.

Models seem to be liking the idea of a PV split in early February.