That is factually correct. And why super Ninos are a separate natural cycle unrelated to global warming.

Phil says Ninos cleanse the earth of warmth. #blessings

April PDO number will definitely still be solidly negative.

The mid February to mid March cold/trough signal during Niñas is probably the strongest correlation I can think of. And another signal that extends way back. For example late February 1890 was probably our coldest airmass on record for that particular chunk of calendar and was a massive Niña event. And yeah, I'm afraid of what we're going to see temp-wise on a global scale these next couple years if a mega Niño does develop. We're already pushing global records each and every month and that's with a weak Niñaish base state the last two years. Very likely we shatter some more global records. And each of the last few major strong Niño events since 1997-98 have represented a global temperature baseline shift. For example, the 1999-01 Niña never got as cold globally as 1996 was right before the huge Niño. Ditto for the 2020-22 multi-year Niña, which was significantly warmer than the previous major Niña event a decade earlier. And now 2024-present appears to be warmer yet again than just prior to the last big Niño.

Enjoy your stay! Temps overperformed on the cool side this morning as I had a low of 34. Don't think any model was quite that cold but I'd have to go back and look. Wonder if LOT will issue a freeze warning for Saturday morning. Perhaps they won't have enough confidence to do so, but it's one of those times that I'm just going to assume that there could be a freeze.