Picked up 5” overnight. Very graupely snow despite temps in the mid 20s. Looks like Bozeman is getting hit harder than we are.

JMA weeklies and the majority of the Global Models are all suggesting high latitude blocking a major trough pattern over the Central CONUS for Week 2. A rather active an unseasonably cool pattern is shaping up to close out the month, especially out here in the southwest which has been non existent for a very long time. Hope we can cash in on some troughs digging into the 4 corners. Temp/Precip....

I did the numbers for my area, starting with 1972-73 event, which I consider a very strong event. I counted 2009/10 as a strong event, and considered 1986/88 as a 2-year strong event, instead of the one (since it peaked in the summer of 87 anyways). The 91/92 event was the only one that had a warmer pre-nino summer than post-nino summer, but that event seemed screwed up due to the major volcano (Pinatubo). The only other pre-nino summer that was warmer than average was 2015, but if you consider 14-15 to be a weak el nino, then the summer of 2014 was cooler. Coincidentally enough, the warmer pre-nino summers came in borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years. Pre-strong nino/post-strong nino summer average temps (PHL) since 1970 72-73: pre-nino summer 72 (73.9); post-nino summer 73 (77.1) 82-83: pre-nino summer 82 (73.0); post-nino summer 83 (75.7) 86-88: pre-nino summer 86 (75.3); post-nino summer 88 (77.1) [summer 87 during the el nino was 76.5] 91-92: pre-nino summer 91 (77.9); post-nino summer 92 (74.0) 97-98: pre-nino summer 97 (74.2); post-nino summer 98 (75.7) 09-10: pre-nino summer 09 (75.1); post-nino summer 10 (79.6) 15-16: pre-nino summer 15 (77.7); post-nino summer 16 (78.8) 23-24: pre-nino summer 23 (75.8; although JAS was 76.1); post-nino summer 24 (78.5)

Our pleasant season, second half of October to 1st half of April, corresponds to the garbage season in PNW. And our inferno season corresponds to the nice season in PNW. Yes, I don't consider end of October to early April nice in PNW.

29.5F. Second straight low below 30