It makes more sense to me that a model would underestimate a fairly variable phenomenon in an area where it occurs more frequently and overestimate it in an area where it's much less frequent than most places, than vice versa. Since models don't account for every fine detail that causes lightning to occur, they just look for the typical parameters.

Absolutely and unequivocally atrocious. Might drink an IPA later in disgust.

Is the 1st Ring of Fire pattern of the season shaping up for the Heartland this Fri-Mon??? It's not necessarily your classic Hot Dome Ridge Riders but something to that degree is looking likely as the tail end of the weekend into early next week a HP crashes south into Deep Texas.

I never said it warmed the entire climate system... I did say it warms up the actual environment humans live. The El Nino evil thing was more of a troll against Tim... But still that 7-8 value is at peak (and with a rare strong Nino at that), which means it's still very little integrated over time compared to the sustained radiative forcing from GHG. Sure, you could say "La Nina" is dragging that down.. but ENSO is a cycle in which El Nino depends on that subsurface heat from La Nina. It's just a transfer process in which some of that heat (that was previously gained anyways!) gets lost from the overall system... More of which is replaced and trapped by greenhouse gases when coming back in anyways. The planet is warming. There is no dispute of that. Therefore El Nino cannot be releasing more heat than is being gained. The ENSO cycle and other internal modes of variability goes on... But climate change can be culled by human action. In essence, the heat that El Nino sheds was already here. It's like racking up a bunch of debt and being proud of shedding a little bit of it. And peak ingoing radiation is in fact right before an El Nino... Not during a La Nina.

When we lived in Maple Valley something was eating our tomatoes. I thought raccoons. Turned out it was rats that lived in our crawl space. That was a fun and expensive problem to solve, evicting the rats and then replacing insulation and vapor barrier.