The whaler is off trimmed

I would think base state for the anomaly period would be more important than number of analogs within certain years...but again, all signs point basically the same way so it doesn't matter all that much which base period you go with in this case. It's only if you look just at the past 10-15 years that there is a strong dry signal - but that is independent of ENSO over that period. And obviously very few analogs.

Yeah the AIFS is my #1 LR forecasting tool now, consistently outperforms other ensemble forecasting systems, including the EPS.

1950-2010 would have included all but 1 of your analogs. The 91-20 had more than 50% outside of. Do you, but my map weights as such: +0.5 ONI, x0.5, +2.0 ONI, x2.0, -1.0 ONI, x-1.0. It includes everything, weighted by strength.

Problem is the choices on that site are either 1950-2010 or 30 year periods, essentially. There is no 1950-2025 option. But regardless, all maps show the same basic thing: first year Ninos don't have any real dry signal for mid summer. Also, I filtered specifically for developing first year moderate or greater Ninos, which is not the same as your map.