Exhibit B... the 12Z ECMWF AIFS is the complete opposite of warm and dry in the period that is supposedly going to be warm and dry.

Abbotsford is at +3.6F but they are still using the 1981-2010 baseline. So given the warming climate it is likely a few notches cooler on the departure.

I know I am showing you why I don't trust any extended warm spell right now. Not even close to making that kind of prediction.

This is also a OP run of the GFS. You know what you are doing.

Reality is that most of us are just too close to the situation here. Really outside of Tim, I think we generally need at least 1200 miles distance from the region to be able to properly assess the reality of the weather in this area.