I saw soooo many ECMWF AIFS runs that showed deep troughing and rain on Father's Day. But there we were on the lake in 80-degree sun. I get a sense the AI models are too aggressive after about day 5. Just a feeling.
Days like this when all stations in the Willamette Valley are within a degree or two of each other kind of poke a hole in the whole "PDX UHI hotbed!" narrative.