The HRRR has a bias against stratoform precip, particularly of the lighter variety. I'm more worried about dry air ahead of the front than I am about model outputs

ECMWF comes in with significant rain on Thursday and Friday now. Big change.

June 2010 and June 2011 were really crap

IF the soil moisture was drier I could see the possibility, but the general trend this season and the fact that most of the Midwest has been quiet wet, it'll be hard to drive temps that high. Who knows though, if that GFS Op run pops that 597dm ridge then it'll be FUEGO.

HRRR looks pretty underwhelming tonight and is catching up to the globals. Went from this To this In the space of a few runs. Pretty disorganized and meager looking stuff with this.