Still out here..6 hrs now

the Herp done had a bad run this time huh?

These tight low centers have burned me far too many times to get excited about them anymore. I shant be fooled by an errant HRDPS run any longer

You're actually both right. In the low levels westerlies are kicking in with a clear CZ signature on the lower tilts. Above that, this feisty little low center is injecting its wraparound occlusion into the midlevels. As for the SW tilt to the mean flow, I think the powerful pressure rises in the lee of the low center, passing right over Seattle, are contributing a NW component to the low level flow, hence the sudden sharp CZ signature and southerly position. This CZ is already dissipating as height rises lessen and it will probably fade entirely within the next 2 hours

I’ll be in Arizona in mid-October. The second half of fall is an elite time of year in the desert Southwest IMO. It’s the end of monsoon season so the desert is about as alive and scenic as it gets, and the city really feels like it’s waking up now that it’s cool enough to be outside during the day, kind of like the first warm and sunny days of spring up here. Also before the snowbird season.