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#187128 December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by MR.SNOWMIZER on 18 December 2016 - 12:23 PM

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing with all this. Dont want to sound like a wimp but life is so short. All who have a wife or significant other go give them a hug and spend every second with them like its the last!!
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#206934 January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by Tyler Mode on 14 January 2017 - 07:02 PM

The state of the snow now 4 days after it fell. 

 

I've never seen such staying power in our snow with sunny days as well!  2008 it stuck around a long time but it was pretty much socked in the entire time.

 

Vancouver Lake is frozen, I've never seen that before and the trees are still coated amazingly well.

 

The one picture of the road looks like it's from the mid-west, not SW Washington.

 

High of 33.6 today after a low of 9.5.


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#52273 December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by SilverFallsAndrew on 17 December 2014 - 03:41 PM

Sorry, but I had too....

 

Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.

 

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#217689 February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by van city on 07 February 2017 - 12:01 PM

Some incredible scenes of winter up in Northern Whatcom County. Love it!

From Chilliwack.

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#206955 January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by Bryant on 14 January 2017 - 09:56 PM

Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a respectable 75 acres and 75' deep.

Lake Whatcom was skatable on the north end, for the first time since January 1993. For those that don't know, the lake is 13 miles long and 350' deep. We broke the ice about 50 yards out and it was 3-4" thick. Was quite an adrenaline rush to experience skating on a lake of that size.

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#206228 January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by Jesse on 12 January 2017 - 08:05 PM

Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.

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#190199 December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by DJ Droppin on 24 December 2016 - 10:26 AM

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.

 

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#178153 December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by jaya on 08 December 2016 - 11:07 AM

Could you write your own morning discussion...just for us? And not mention any change over to rain or any of that stuff! Just kidding, you guys do a great job, we are just all weenies. 

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at.

With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models showed drying and no precip. We got 2-3 inches from that in Seattle. In other cases, the dry air won.  I'll see later.  I'm a little concerned that outflow from the Fraser will keep the area NE of Bellingham in the cold for the foreseeable future.  I'm not sure about the change to a mix or rain up there Except maybe near the water and south of the hills.

 

Concerning the longer term...Monday is looking potentially interesting - but the moisture leaves before the cold air comes down. Time will tell. But it is looking cold. With the very cold air over western Canada and Alaska and the high latitude block along 150W, combined with some undercutting of the flow along 40N -W Wa will be in the middle of the battle zone. I really don't know the details on how the models are handling tropical moisture and convection at this time (model changes are happening at a fast pace), but very cold air nearby and moisture from the south could make things quite interesting over the next couple of weeks. The end of next week looks interesting. 

 

Models in this pattern tend to be quite unstable. Model riding is dangerous.  It will be difficult to get things right even in the short term.


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#293922 December Weather In the PNW

Posted by ShawniganLake on 27 December 2017 - 09:32 PM

Nobody cares what happens in Vancouver. Go to the Canadian forums.

******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.
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#173790 December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by TT-SEA on 04 December 2016 - 04:40 PM

Awesome sunset tonight....

 

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#319857 February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

Posted by jaya on 16 February 2018 - 11:21 PM

According to the WRF the south Sound does better than the north Sound.  Not sure if I buy it or not but that's what it shows.  Everyone has equal chances with this.

I'm not sure I like the details in any of the models. Almost anything can happen.

 

I think big picture instead of mesoscale - and worry about the mesoscale a few hours out.

 

Let's keep an eye on the pressure gradients. If KOTH-KSEA remains strongly southerly, CYWL-KBLI strongly northerly, upper low comes over the area, surface and 850 mb low comes onshore near KHQM and into the south interior, I can't see that someone in W WA doesn't do rather well (2-4 with local 4-6) in the snowfall amount with this arctic front.  I do tend to think big, so maybe I'm over forecasting, but I do see potential.

 

Now my bet:

 

We have rather cold air aloft coming in late Sat night into Sunday. Above 300-500 ft above MSL, I can see snow ratios somewhat better than 10-1 (15 to 1 maybe), especially toward the tail end of the event.

 

Who will get the snow?  Well, the models typically err in bringing the cold air southward from the Fraser too quickly. I can see it hanging up somewhere from Mt Vernon to N of Seattle for a while before pushing southward. This would focus snow most strongly over this area with the fluffiest snow midday to aftn Sunday away from the water.  Port Angeles will do very well as they get upslope and "lake effect.".  Still too much uncertainty on the track of the midweek system, but this has some potential to give more widespread accumulations in a warm advection pattern. Anywhere to the north of the track of the low could do well.  

 

As a snow lover, I see great potential.  Of course, living in the northwest means disappointment and forecasting snow around here is difficult. 

 

My bets at this point (based on model means and mainly gut):

 

Bellingham 3 inches (early)

High area south of Mt Vernon, 5 inches

KPAE:  5 inches

North Seattle 3 inches

Downtown Seattle 1 inch.

Seatac 1.5 inches

Olympia 1 inch

Areas to the east of Tacoma (Eatonville) 6 inches

Port Angeles 6 inches.

 

Low temperature Tuesday morning at KSEA: 19, KPAE 17, KBLI 15, KOLM 13

 

If it does not work out...oh well, another busted forecast ... but this one is just for fun.

 

jaya




#318640 February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

Posted by jaya on 14 February 2018 - 06:01 PM

What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

Most cold air west of the Cascades comes in from aloft (with exception to the small region around the gaps in the terrain.  Air aloft is cold with this system.  It looks cold. 

 

For snow, I want to see a low drop south to the west of the Olympics try to put some warm air advection over the top of a southward advancing cold front. The slower the movement, the better the snowfall amounts.

 

With the cold air aloft and the cooling air from the north, I think that snow-water ratios should be better than 10 to one with this setup (so amounts may over perform what the models show.  I am hoping that Sunday will be a nice and snowy one, and that the snow will stick around for a couple of days or so.  

 

I also like the eastward run to run shift of that next low toward midweek.  Warm air advection into a cold air mass can be good for snow that moves farther into the cold air than models indicate. It will be fun to see how things progress.

 

It looks like things may stay interesting into the first week of March.




#288696 December Weather In the PNW

Posted by ShawniganLake on 20 December 2017 - 08:54 AM

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out the front door yesterday.

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#251237 August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

Posted by Eujunga on 21 August 2017 - 01:50 PM

I could have done better with the imaging part of the deal, but the experience was amazing.  The temperature dropped 10 degrees, from 72 to 62.  Owls hooted; crickets chirped. No traffic on the way to my "secret" viewing spot (shared with about 15-20 other people), but ran into some on the way back to Eugene.

 

These are the only two usable shots I got:

 

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#216888 February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by luvssnow_seattle on 05 February 2017 - 10:53 PM

I am up to about 7.5 inches now.

 

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#206150 January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by wx_statman on 12 January 2017 - 04:00 PM

Thought I'd share a couple more pictures I took last night. This is from a Section 8 housing project @ NE 45th & Broadway. Its a 14 story building that creates a vortex when hit by east winds. Some pretty crazy drifting as a result, on the east side of the building:

 

 

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#380139 November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

Posted by iFred on 10 November 2018 - 07:00 PM

Richard is safe.

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#218253 February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by MossMan on 09 February 2017 - 08:56 AM

Simply stunning images from Whatcom Co, Scott Sistek did a great write up and lots of images!

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#217595 February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by VancouverIslandSouth on 07 February 2017 - 08:39 AM

Looks like the snow is finally done here, the outflow winds are kicking in a bit more and it's cooled down a little. I estimate there's been a little over 7" since it began Sunday night. A few more pictures from this morning:

 

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#206044 January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Posted by BLI snowman on 12 January 2017 - 10:35 AM

Got the last of the sunrise around 7:55 today

 

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