April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Tyler Mode]

Seasonably cool this morning, 37.  Hoping we get another freeze or two before the month is out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE bummed a -0.6F departure in March. Not bad. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Looks like things got pretty entertaining on the forum yesterday..  I got a hair cut Saturday and ended up with a hair clipping in my eye.  Said eye got extremely pissed off, and I now officially have permission from my wife to talk like a pirate thanks the abrasion on my eyeball and eyepatch I am now wearing.  Anyway, felt like crap yesterday and couldn't really read up on things.

 

Ended up being a lot more cloudy up here Saturday and Sunday than I had anticipated, though it was nice and sunny the first half of Sunday.  We had frost Saturday and Sunday morning, and we did make it up to 65 on Sunday though.

 

42 this morning under cloudy skies.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

25 currently, low of 20.  It's still looking pretty bad for the Texas/Arkansas eclipse, but Missouri/Illinois/Indiana might be fine. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CanSIPS looking great for summer and January. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful morning to start April. Clear skies with a low of 40. Just a few more days of ridging to get through then looks like a nice cool down. Hoping for a dynamic month with a mix of warm days, cool troughing, decent rainfall and maybe some thunderstorms chances. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE bummed a -0.6F departure in March. Not bad. 

Coolest major station in the region, save BLI which had a -1.1.

Seems like SLE does better with negative departures in cloudier months now, opposite of OLM which put up a +1.3 departure.

And then we have PDX, which runs warm in pretty much any pattern.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

25 currently, low of 20.  It's still looking pretty bad for the Texas/Arkansas eclipse, but Missouri/Illinois/Indiana might be fine. 

I might switch gears to the Mother-in-Law's house in Ohio

[Front Ranger]

Spring is such an unpredictable time for storms, cloud cover and weather in general, especially for the region affected by this eclipse. Going to be fascinating to watch this unfold as we actually get into reasonable range now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Coolest major station in the region, save BLI which had a -1.1.

Seems like SLE does better with negative departures in cloudier months now, opposite of OLM which put up a +1.3 departure.

And then we have PDX, which runs warm in pretty much any pattern.

There were a few days early in the month that SLE really overachieved on some chilly high temps (or underachieved). The warm stretch wasn’t quite as ridiculous further down the valley too. It makes sense, is all I’m saying. I think Silver Falls will probably come in a little below average too. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There were a few days early in the month that SLE really overachieved on some chilly high temps (or underachieved). The warm stretch wasn’t quite as ridiculous further down the valley too. It makes sense, is all I’m saying. I think Silver Falls will probably come in a little below average too. 

I got your back on this one Andrew

[Thermal Trough]

PDX finished March with 2.70” of rain. Less than 1.27” and 68% compared to normal.

 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

PDX finished March with 2.70” of rain. Less than a 1.27” and 68% compared to normal.

 

it has begun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem also had over 4” of rain in March. We were around 8” which is near but slightly below normal. 

Edited April 1 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cascadia_Wx]

22 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

it has begun

I always wondered what he looked like.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CanSIPS looking great for summer and January. 

CanSIPs has been pretty aggressive about DJF for the past few months. Maybe more of a feedback thing than anything else, but always fun to dream.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There were a few days early in the month that SLE really overachieved on some chilly high temps (or underachieved). The warm stretch wasn’t quite as ridiculous further down the valley too. It makes sense, is all I’m saying. I think Silver Falls will probably come in a little below average too. 

 

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I got your back on this one Andrew

I was in no way disputing it, for the record.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS was pretty barftacular in the long range.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The first 1/2 of April is looking very dry right now, at face value.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Beautiful morning to start April. Clear skies with a low of 40. Just a few more days of ridging to get through then looks like a nice cool down. Hoping for a dynamic month with a mix of warm days, cool troughing, decent rainfall and maybe some thunderstorms chances. 

???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

CanSIPs has been pretty aggressive about DJF for the past few months. Maybe more of a feedback thing than anything else, but always fun to dream.

I’m locking it in. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone have a Euro snow map for this week? 

[Thermal Trough]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

it has begun

I’m releasing my official Summer forecast right now. I’m calling for a backloaded Summer but overall cooler than normal (June to September). June and July will be cooler than normal. August will be seasonal and September will be warmer than normal.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Anyone have the Euro cloud cover map for 18z April 8th in the Texas area? Pivotal only shows precip, need piv+ to see the cloud map.

 

It seemed like a pretty good run but idk

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I’m releasing my official Summer forecast right now. I’m calling for a backloaded Summer but overall cooler than normal (June to September). June and July will be cooler than normal. August will be seasonal and September will be warmer than normal.  

COOLER.  Is this an April fools joke.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

 

I was in no way disputing it, for the record.

I hear you. Didn’t think you necessarily were. It’s interesting, SLE definitely took a turn as the regional warm outlier, but I felt they ve been doing alright since October 2019. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hear you. Didn’t think you necessarily were. It’s interesting, SLE definitely took a turn as the regional warm outlier, but I felt they ve been doing alright since October 2019. 

Sometimes I wonder what tweaks they make to the stations that we don’t know about. For years in the 2000s and early 2010s VUO was a massive warm outlier, but now it seems like their numbers have gone back to being more reasonable again. Now OLM is the one spitting out funky numbers more.

And of course PDX and SEA have always been huge warm outliers for their respective metro areas, with all those sun soaked runways.

[Cascadia_Wx]

And let us not forget the strongly worded later I sent to Pendleton NWS about the station at The Dalles spitting out lots of oddly warm numbers a few years ago. They said they would send a technician out to look at it, then miraculously within about a week the station fell back more in line with surrounding obs. They never followed up with exactly what work was needed, or what that technician did though.  

Edited April 1 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

CanSIPs has been pretty aggressive about DJF for the past few months. Maybe more of a feedback thing than anything else, but always fun to dream.

Seasonal/climate models will typically default to the canonical ENSO response, particularly during boreal winter. The components of subseasonal variability are always underestimated, and in fact are near impossible to project dynamically from such ranges.

Seasonal forecasting is actually the area where AI/statistical models have the greatest potential to improve predictability. Factor in enough inter-related components (QBO, subseasonal modes of tropical forcing such as MJO, ERWs, & OKWs, Atlantic/Pacific meridional modes, annular modes, ENSO, etc) and their statistical+dynamical relationship(s) with one another, and you will see a substantial increase in predictability in both seasonal and subseasonal frequencies at very long ranges (possibly 6+ months).

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Anyone have the Euro cloud cover map for 18z April 8th in the Texas area? Pivotal only shows precip, need piv+ to see the cloud map.

 

It seemed like a pretty good run but idk

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also looks much less troughy for next week compared to its 00Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

ECMWF was much improved for eclipse day in Texas.  

[bainbridgekid]

Excellent Spring skiing yesterday at Stevens. 45 and sunny skies.

[MossMan]

HCS at the lake earlier today. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anyone have a Euro snow map for this week? 

 

[LowerGarfield]

70F outside and mostly clear skies. I'm a bit sick today so I'm getting some sunshine and Vitamin D. It is great. 

[LowerGarfield]

Look like it's 60, not 70F.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

70F burger in Springfield. Beautiful day.

[TT-SEA]

Not a bad start to April.   

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF also looks much less troughy for next week compared to its 00Z run.  

 

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF was much improved for eclipse day in Texas.  

Flailing.