All Activity

LAX is a disaster today

strongest in 19 years they say here's a good resource to find where its really dark. I'm going to drive out an hour from town to nearly absolute darkness https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/

Not a great movie, but has some pretty cool moments for sure.

It didn't work for us watching the Seahawks super often last season.

Funny how if I do something once it’s immediately called out while others can do it dozens of times with impunity

Makes sense

About as big a difference as you'll ever see 6 days out.

Latitude of the 4CH is important. If it’s centered too far south it inhibits moisture advection.

Jengus says stay positive and stay hydrated everybody! It’ll be December before you know it!

Sounds like you’re not calling for much of a 4CH either though. Could be related.

That seems about right to me. There might not be much of a SW monsoon this summer, though.

To me, in layman’s terms, it seemed like things lined up just right with the sudden amplification of the pattern and the position of the ULL offshore to our SW to basically pull a “lobe” of the 4CH directly over our region with very little time for the airmass to moderate. And thanks to the ULL positioning dragging the center hottest air far to the NW, offshore flow became possible in the low levels which allowed an already bonkers airmass to become fully realized in the lowlands in a way that would usually be mitigated to some degree by flat or weakly onshore gradients. Of course, down south, around or just after the summer solstice is when the 4CH can often be at its most robust, before it starts being eroded by monsoonal influence later in the summer. Which is why June is the hottest month of the year for some parts of the SW US.

We’re supposed to root for La Niña, though. Right?

This would be wild.

To simplify it, the poleward transport of westerly momentum (culminating as a stronger/poleward northern jet) can “abandon” components of middle latitude waves. Which under certain wavenumbers (and other seasonal boundary conditions) can guide those waves into a state of quasi-resonance and/or amplifying constructive interference. The timing of all elements has to be absolutely perfect for an outcome like June 2021. The probability of that happening is so low that it almost never happens.

Carrington event redux. Our new and improved telegraph system is going down.

73.0˚F.

All summers are hot summers now.

I’m glad the GFS will be wrong. Hard to bet against heat though. I’m still traumatized from June 2021

The end is here.

GFS saw Phil's map the other day and thought it was still 2023.

72F KSEA, 75F here. Toasty and outrageously beautiful out there.

No surprise that the EPS and control run look like the ECMWF through next week. GFS has literally no chance against a consistent EPS.

Meanwhile, it’s a lovely morning here. Low of 51. Warming up quick though, up to 74 now. Hoping we can avoid 90 today. If so, we might only have to wait a few more days until our next shot, or 7-10 days+ depending on which model you trust.