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A wrinkle as much as localized anomalies in July! Actually less so, since the ULL made everyone cool. And it actually isn't that surprising, given the overall pattern. When you get high pressure offshore, these sort of things tend to develop.

Saturday North Texas is forecast for a front to come through and it will deliver approx. .75" of rain and temps dropping to 95* and Sun. a repeat and temps to hit only 92*. I thought I was hallucinating when I saw it, but it looks like our 100*+ run is o-ver. Furthermore, the balance of the month of August will remain below 100* and a few days will slip into the high 80's. Take my word when I say all of North Texas will heave a sigh of relief. Oh, by the way, has anyone noticed we are close to nearly 4000 days without a Huricane hitting the US? In less than two months (October 6, 2016) it will be 4,000 days since the last time a major hurricane made landfall in the U.S., which was Wilma on October 24, 2005. Wilma was a record-setter, being the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with peak estimated sustained winds of 183 mph and lowest surface pressure of 882 mb.

In defense of Phil... He predicted we would see a major anomalous GOA ridge this summer and we most certainly have. The anomaly has been impressive in it's intensity and duration. Good call.

Sorry, but you've been severely obnoxious and obtuse recently, even by your standards, and this is coming from someone who has observed you for years. Just the way it goes sometimes.

You said a lot of things at different points, but towards the end of July you definitely said 8/1 - 8/10 would end up warm. Oh wells.

It's definitely played out troughier/cooler so far than you were thinking in late July.

The Euro has been hinting at a strong GOA ridge again later in the month. That feature would give us a great winter if it becomes a "permanent" fixture.

00z GFS and its ensembles weren't terrible at all. I'm starting to think this mid-month warm period could set us up for more troughing the last 1/3 of August. Or at least another relatively cool pattern.

The every 10 minutes type stuff was quite simply way too much pressure to handle IMO. I broke out in hives several times the past few months while sweating out potential evening highs.

No, you just changed what you were talking about when it started becoming clear you were wrong about the overall summer pattern. :) :) :) :) And it is obvious to everyone but you.

0z GFS is certainly trending away from any major warmth after the brief run later this week.

I've abandoned models entirely and am waiting for an update from Richard.

All weeks of the Euro shifting colder in the central US through the opening weeks of September. Could be a cooler than avg close to august for most of us.

Stop dragging me back into this s**t. You started it with a laughably transparent, backhanded troll attempt at me. Normally I'd ignore it but you've been a relentless pain in my butt all summer and I'm low on patience.

Yes, but you also try to downplay periods you were wrong about. Like the past week or so. I'm not picking on you. You brought this on yourself with your ridiculousness in July. I'll give you props when you're right, and I'll call you out when you're being a hypocrite.

You completely missed his point. Look at how hard you hammered the late July anomalies, vs how you've responded to the cool anomalies this month. And sometimes I give posts ironic likes...

Nailed it. Tim is laughably predictable.

Sure. You can be a low frequency red to his blazing indigo.

Looks poised for an amplifying GOA ridge in the 11 to 15 day period.

The 12z Euro is nice. Cooler overall than the GFS. I like the tendency toward offshore ridging rebuilding toward the end of the run.

I disagree. We are all part of a beautiful rainbow of mental illness.

Is it ok to like cool summer weather for its own sake?

The models aren't showing any sustained ridging in the believable range. Pretty much zonal flow for the 6 to 10 day period.

It's kind of funny how we're expected to "move on" when an easily above average ten day period ends up below average, but when things swing the other way it gets driven home until our eyes bleed.

I don't care how "nice" you think a month is. I look at quantitative, numerically verifiable data, from all relevant standpoints. I don't live in a world where cherry picking and hyperbole is necessary to sustain a personal opinion on the nature of reality.

You started it all (again) with an attempted backhanded jab at my forecast. You never learn, dude. It's August 9th, and you're making baseless claims beyond even clown range GFS territory. You're transparent as f**k. At least try to be somewhat stealthy with your trolling.

This is gonna be hilarious. Soon the models will start trending cool for late August as that ridge start retrograding offshore, and you'll throw yet another temper tantrum. I bet we have three or four "Tim" threads by August 20th.

They'll flip cool for late August IMO. Hifreq WAF props into lowfreq Niña waveguide by the 3rd week of August should result in NPAC height rises during the 4th week of the month, and downstream western troughing from then into at least the first week of September.

Some of the early clues that I'm going to look out for as we head into September, is if we start seeing more troughs forming south of the Aleutians. We'll see if the East Asian theory starts playing a role later this month and begins a pattern of forming that trough...and if it holds later into September. Seems like most met's/forecasters are starting to "bank" on the N PAC to play a big role given the fact that the La Nina may be weak or even ENSO neutral.

I'll post his maps here for everyone to see...thanks for sharing... Here is the link if you'd like to read: http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early-2016-17-winter-forecast/ http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Early-2016-17-Winter-Forecast.png

JB tossed out another slough of winter analogs today. "59-60,60-61,93-94,95-96,13-14,14-15 would be analogs that would wind up matching such a thing."

The stuffed white cat says prepare for late fall and winter, it could be very cold!

Waters are boiling near Baja/Mexico region...if there is any storm development later this month through October, could spell trouble down the road down there. Monsoons have been tapping into that energy over the last week or so. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_epac_1.png Edit: Just checked, and remnants of what was Hurricane Earl that hit Belize, tries to redevelop and target the Baja area Mon/Tue. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016080500/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_namer_5.png Speaking of warm water, LM shoreline hit 80F!

-AO/NAO in tandem later next weekend may spell a decidedly cool pattern for the central CONUS. 12z EPS showing a nice trough signal...might be a pretty decent cool down. Typhoon Rule may also assist in the pattern alignment. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016080312/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

It was maybe even later than that before there was a normal snow advance across Canada. Should've been one of the many cues I ignored that my winter was going to suck last year. If October even comes close to verifying like that, it's going to be a cold autumn even down here.