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I think some of the comments Leo Decaprio has made about climate change need to be addressed. At the Acedemy Awards he stated that he witnessed climate change in Alberta during the shooting of a movie. In truth he witnessed a dramatic snow melt caused by a Chinook wind which has been a normal occurance in that part of Canada at least since the first settlers arrived. The thing he said that was really outrageous was they had to go the Southern Hemisphere to find snow after that. This statement is so obviously not true it defies logic that he actually said it. For one thing why would you go to the Southern Hemisphere to find snow during their summer? They seriously couldn't find snow in Alaska or somewhere in Canada that wasn't effected by the Chinook? Garbage like this is extremely counter productive in the global climate change debate and these celebrities, who know nothing about science, need to be called out on it.

The 18z continues to trend slightly colder with the coming trough. Looks like a decent northerly gradient with it. Monday should be a sunny, crisp, breezy day in the Seattle area. Best weather you can get in October!

The last couple of GFS runs have now trended longer lasting for the cold air mass early next week. Another solid cold shot showing up on the 12z during week two now. Things look much better than they did earlier in the week. Looks like we will get our first frost reasonably early after all in many places.

I used to watch "local on the 8's" for the awesome elevator music...

It has been pouring down rain all morning. Sky is dark and it feels like 8am. I drove to Costco and back earlier. Lots of street flooding from the first wind blowing leaves into the drains. ENjoying the first true taste of fall.

Apparently you haven't managed to do that yet, so it must be near impossible

Yeah, that sounded made up. Regardless, I don't want to get drug into the mud anymore. So I will likely go back to refraining from responding. It's difficult when someone so guilty acts so innocent. It makes you wonder if they've gotten to the point where they have actually got themselves convinced. For hating Trump so much he and Tim certainly have some uncanny similarities.

I'm not sure what's more flukey...the fact that they got hit so often in the 1890's or the fact that they haven't since then.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com latest post is very in depth analysis of our upcoming trend. Good stuff.

I wished I would have recorded it!

I could really care less, I'm a Coug so I was just watching the Husky game to kill time, Cougs v Stanford, here we go!!

The NWS has begun to trend their temps lower. Now calling for highs in the upper 50 on Monday with lows mid 30 to low 40s for the East Puget Sound Lowlands.

I would only watch the "local on the 8's" during winter storms so I could see the colorful "winter storm warnings" in awesomely bright neon Commedore 64 text and graphics!!

I don't know much about their winter forecasts, to be honest. I do remember that in the 1990's their on-air coverage of west coast weather felt like an afterthought. That's when I used to watch them. It was all about the east coast.

I haven't watched them in years, but they definitely used to be East coast biased. I used to hate Kristina Abernathy because she would stand on the left side of the screen with her head blocking Portland. She clearly didn't care about us.

Good point. Right now the mets are still behind the times with the evolution of this cool period.

Really interesting block showing up on the ECMWF in the week 2 period. Playing with fire for sure.

Latest trends in the GEFS are taking #Matthew OTS after the Carolina's which will result in pumping the Greenland Block later next week. Trough next week is digging farther south and east allowing more cooling. Amazing how much the Euro is trending colder next week Wed in the Plains. Just 4 days ago it was painting +10-14C Anomalies...now, it's showing -10- -14C Anomalies for the same period. 4 days ago... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100412/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png Today's run...Model volatility???? I'd say so, and you can thank the -AO/NAO. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100812/ecmwf_T850a_us_5.png

The 60s weren't really great here overall, but they did have their moments. A lot of blockiness though. A blend of the 50s and 60s could be really interesting. Maybe we would have to go further back to find a really good match.

Had an awesome chase on Thursday 10/6 in northern Kansas. Was a great week as I was able to chase Tuesday the 4th in Kansas and saw a brief funnel, Wednesday was my birthday, and then Thursday witnessed this strong tornado from at one point about a quarter mile away! My chase partner and I were on the first storms in north central Kansas. The first storm we came upon produced several brief funnels but no tornadoes at first. The road network was pretty bad in that area so unfortunately we had to leave the storm after we fell behind it and only had a dirt road to try and keep up with it as it moved east. So we bailed south to a nice highway that would take us east to Clay Center KS. There was a cell on the end of the broken line that we wanted to intercept next. Of course 10 minutes after we left the first storm it went tornado warned and produced a confirmed tornado while we were driving to our next target! We skirted the next supercell's core on the northern edge as we drove east and made it to Clay Center just as some quarter to golf ball sized hail started to fall in town. We turned south on HWY 15 and about a mile outside of town stopped to witness a large wall cloud which within minutes dropped a tornado. We grabbed some pics before getting back to the highway to try and get south before the tornado crossed the road on it's eastward path. We stopped one more time to get pics before really having to haul a** as the tornado began to approach the road and we got into the RFD. Looked down at one point and was driving 85mph to make sure we beat it as the tornado spun up vortices underneath it and had rapidly rotating rain curtain under the broad funnel. The tornado condensed fully and we were far enough south out of it's path so we quickly stopped and took pictures back to the north as it crossed the road. Unfortunately, it quickly became rain wrapped as it crossed the road. We made an attempt to move east with it but again ran into only a dirt road option so had to end the chase. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get any real good video as we didn't have time to get far enough south to turn around and record it as it crossed the road. I've attached some pics I took as it did. Of note, the headlights in the picture coming down the road are of a semi truck that cut it very close to the tornado! This will probably be the last good setup of the year so this should help the next 5 months of downtime for myself and chasing!

Or the big area of moderate/heavy rainfall approaching us right now.

I have a great idea, let's talk about weather forecasts and how much snow we want this winter.

NW burbs got down easily into the mid 30's, locally, ORD bottomed out at 41F. Coolest morning since mid May and surely does feel chilly! Thankfully, no winds to deal with which makes it pleasant. More trees are starting to turn color around the neighborhood. Beautiful fall colors showing up in the Northwoods of Wisco. http://www.travelwisconsin.com/fall-color-report# Most of MN Arrowhead near Peak color... http://maps2.dnr.state.mn.us/pat/fall_colors/current_map.png

I've been watching each and every model run and one thing that pops out is, almost every run tries to hold 0C temps through April 1st! Yesterday's snowfall up in N MN...

It is rather mystifying that out of over 200 million people we didn't end up with better candidates.

Hillary and Trump both suck.

Glass, meet brick. It gets tiring to read posts like these from people who have others on the ignore list.

No...that's what you do. Just in a weasly, spineless, passive aggressive way these days. I'm the fourth or fifth person to point it out in the last 24 hours. It's you.

Go Cub's Go...Go Cub's Go....Hey Chicago whatd'ya say, we got another Blizzard on the way!! Haha...j/k...sounded good when I made that up...Good night ya'll!!!! October baseball is here!

I'm with you here. I suspect we'll be seeing another multiyear regime change, from the +NAO that's dominated since 2014, towards more of a -NAO, similar to what was observed from 2008-2013.