Just hoping its not raining that day for my daughter's lake event. 18Z GFS still looks good and that would a big shift in the final 3 days to bring rain in that day.
There'll be a new AI model coming on the scene soon - Aurora. Apparently scores better than the GraphCast. Unfortunately it's from Microsoft but regardless, the next few years should be interesting for the weather forecasting community and our reliability on the models.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/introducing-aurora-the-first-large-scale-foundation-model-of-the-atmosphere/
FWIW the operational GFS is still the farthest offshore with the shortwave/ULL next week compared to all other models.
It corrected a bit eastward on the 18z but I suspect it will come around further either 00z or 06z.
Hopefully that means MCS's and plentiful, timely showers and storms downstream. It's not really dry yet, but we could use more rain here again. Grass growth slowed a lot, but remains green. We were blessed with a few timely showers amounting to 0.88" so far this month. We should be averaging over 1" per week, which we have been in April and May. (I had 5.66" in May.)
The CPC shows this.